Asymcar

Asymcar

Horace Dediu and Jim Zellmer discuss the politics, processes and possibilities of cars in light of: 1. Young people deferring drivers licenses. 2. The growth of car sharing. 3. Practical alternative power trains. 4. Urbanization. 5. Increased Congestion. 6. Driverless cars. 7. Rise of the "App Economy".

Hosted by Horace Dediu and Jim Zellmer.



#34: The Empire Strikes Back

June 8, 2016 at 9:00PM • 1 hour 1 minute

Joe Rosmann shares his experience and perspective on our changing transportation system - "the most regulated industry we have".

Joe begins with three points:

  1. Car costs continue to grow

  2. Smartphones. Consumers can make dynamic real time choices about the best way to go from a to b 24 hours per day, 7 days per week (see the City Mapper app).

  3. Autonomous vehicles can make lives safer and faster.

We close and reflect on Joe's assertion that "Algorithms are going to become regulatory mandated standards".


#33: Concept, Outcome and Pivot

May 6, 2016 at 4:00PM • 1 hour 9 minutes

Sam Abuelsamid reflects on the origins of BMW's i program, today's economics and the application of lessons learned.

We veer into supply chain details and consider the path that the legacy automakers have chosen.

The show closes with a discussion of Apple's entry assets, supply chain power and business model evolution.


#32: Asymcar 32: Running the Numbers

May 6, 2016 at 1:00PM • 54 minutes

Anton Wahlman joins us as we dive into numbers, production curves and the clash between reality, vision and hubris over autonomous cars

Tesla's "financial equation" merits much discussion interspersed with reflections on an EV landscape littered with government subsidies.

We close with accounting, including a dissertation on variable costs and the burden of "dealerless" car sales.


#31: Better to Go Slow....

April 18, 2016 at 7:00PM • 53 minutes

We dive into the new thing. Can a well known brand do something new? Must the new thing stand alone? Must it have a new name, a new distribution model?

We evaluate BMW's "i" initiative from both a strategic and tactical perspective. BMW, Ford and the other automakers have not a small number of new products and services, apart from traditional cars.

Jobs to be done appears again, as Horace expresses his single pedal "serenity" in traffic.

We close with a few quotes from Ford CEO Mark Fields.


#30: Asymcar 30: The Big Bang Theory

March 29, 2016 at 8:00PM • 1 hour 4 minutes

We talk finance and other curiosities with Sviatoslav Rosov PhD, CFA, Analyst.

Beginning with Henry Ford’s “Old Fashioned Layaway Plan” followed by the launch of General Motors Acceptance Corporation, the Certified Pre-Owned sleight of hand and today’s auto sales finance and reporting controversies all shaped the industry. Finance is one of many vectors which tie the system together into what its is.

We once again explore the other vectors that might open disruptive opportunities for an entrant. Wide ranging discussion touching all the big points ultimately asking whether Big Bang change is coming. Or will it the big whimper?

We once again explore vectors that might open disruptive opportunities for an entrant.


#29: Asymcar 29: Atmospherics

March 18, 2016 at 4:00PM • 58 minutes

Horace and Jim begin with the industry's rhetorical bubble. We consider the auto eco-system's atmospherics on auto companions and quickly revert back to the reality of today's manufacturing practices and industry lead times.

Horace notes the early development of steam, electric and internal combustion engine cars. We discuss the external assets that sustained the engines we use today and what might change in the near term to support significant electric vehicle (EV) growth.

We close in contemplation of Uber's purported 100,000 unit S-Class purchase.


#28: Episode 28: Meaningful

January 19, 2016 at 7:00PM • 59 minutes

Announcements arrive with regularity.

Ford and Google reveal plans to cooperate on autonomous cars. Toyota's aims to begin "precision mapping" roads. Ford zigs in another direction and eyes CityMapper's terrain with its proposed "Dynamic Shuttle" service.

So much slideware.

Horace dives into the data. EV and hybrid cars currently represent a tiny fraction of the market. OPEC recently forecast that by 2040, 94 percent of the vehicles on the world's roads will still be powered by fossil fuels. Bullish, Horace sees greater EV penetration, with modularity powering double digit market share.

Current auto business models trade a few points of marginal cost in return for double digit marginal revenue, resulting in brand explosion.

We await the Lamborghini SUV.


#27: Titanic

December 8, 2015 at 10:00AM • 55 minutes

We consider the landscape that Apple's purported Titan project will address in a few years time.

Horace discusses the pattern of disruption powered by Moore's law. We turn to the transportation sector and consider the "reimagining" of the car. We further consider scenarios, from sustaining where the current players grow, to new entrant opportunities.

The conversation diverts a bit into the regulatory and taxation regime, specifically US road funding is largely tied to fuel taxes. We note the odd situation where an entry level car driver pays fuel taxes while a luxury Tesla driver does not.

We speculate on Apple's possible "meaningful contribution" to transportation and the required product, customer experience, sales channel, price and financing options.


#26: The iPod

November 6, 2015 at 12:00PM • 54 minutes

We begin a speculative show in Berlin, where a cab driver laments “young people arriving in the city to party and sleep on couches”. Might Berlin’s youthful visitors in 2050 simply crash in their autonomous pods? Horace races forward and muses on a future filled with roving, autonomous Winnebagos. Jim notes that there have been previous attempts at such vehicles, particularly with 1960’s and 1970’s era vans. Big data and algorithms run interference. Will autonomous pod players be naturally limited to those who can create and maintain a global mapping system? Today, those organizations include Google, Apple and a consortium owned by Audi, BMW and Mercedes. TomTom supplies GIS data to many organizations and Uber has begun to collect mapping data as well. We close with a bit of Apple gazing. What might Apple’s first car look like? What is its job to be done? Will it be influenced by the VW Beetle? asymcar.com Asymcar River of News


#25: The Selfie Experience

October 1, 2015 at 12:00PM • 58 minutes

Mathew Desmond joins us to discuss Cars Online 2015 - The Selfie Experience. The evolving power of the connected customer. We begin with the fascinating finding that “One-half of customers are interested in buying a car from a tech company like Apple or Google. This is true even of customers who are satisfied with their current brand and dealer experience. It is particularly true of young customers (65%) and those in growth markets (China: 74%; India: 81%).” Backing up a bit, we discuss the automaker’s dilemma, that is the legacy manufacturing, distribution and support infrastructure and contrast that with the “clean slate” approach an entrant might enjoy. The concept and inherent conflicts of a “Master Customer Record” fuels a deeper dive into “Continuity”, the buyer’s desire for a seamless experience. Finally, we reflect on the perils that may lie ahead as the auto ecosystem attempts to improve the retail experience. asymcar.com Asymcar River of News.